How we project what HUD will publish.
Each Lintel projection follows the exact procedure HUD describes in its annual Notice PDR-2026-01 and Income Limits Methodology documents, run against the most recent ACS, FMR, and CBO inputs.
- 01
Source ACS data
Pull median family income (table B19113) from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey for the relevant geography. Apply HUD's reliability test: margin of error must be less than 50% of the estimate, and the estimate must be based on at least 100 observations. Fall back through 1-year ACS → 5-year ACS → 3-year average → state non-metro median.
- 02
Apply CBO trend factor
Inflate the ACS estimate from the survey year to the projection year using the most recent Congressional Budget Office forecast of national per-capita wages and salaries. For FY2026, this factor is 1.054 (the ratio of CBO-projected $48,641 in 2026 to actual $46,125 in 2024).
- 03
Compute preliminary VLI
Take 50% of the trended median family income, then round to the nearest $50. This is the unadjusted Very Low Income limit for a 4-person household, before any housing-cost or cap adjustments.
- 04
Apply high housing cost adjustment
If the income required to afford the area's 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent at 30% of income exceeds the preliminary VLI, raise the VLI to that income level. This protects households in expensive markets from being squeezed below the qualifying line.
- 05
Apply state non-metropolitan minimum
VLI cannot fall below 50% of the state's non-metropolitan median family income (the 'low housing cost floor'). For Florida FY2026, that floor is $40,400 (50% of $80,800).
- 06
Apply national maximum
VLI cannot exceed 80% of the U.S. median family income. For FY2026 that ceiling is $85,450 (80% of $106,800).
- 07
Apply year-over-year cap and floor
Beginning in FY2024, HUD limits annual VLI increases to the lesser of (a) 5% or twice the national MFI change, or (b) 10% absolute. Annual decreases are limited to 5%. For FY2026, the cap binds at 10% — affecting roughly one-fifth of all FMR areas.
- 08
Derive household size schedule
Apply HUD's family-size multipliers (0.70 / 0.80 / 0.90 / 1.00 / 1.08 / 1.16 / 1.24 / 1.32) to the 4-person VLI, rounding each result to the nearest $50.
- 09
Compute LIHTC rents
Per IRC § 42(g)(2), maximum monthly rent for a unit at X% AMI equals 1/12 × 30% × the income basis derived from VLILs. The income basis depends on bedroom size: studios use 1-person VLIL, 1-bedrooms use the average of 1- and 2-person, 2-bedrooms use 3-person, etc. For 60% AMI units, multiply the 50% basis by 120%.
- 10
Calculate confidence interval
We compute a 95% confidence range by combining ACS sampling error (the published margin of error, converted from 90% to 95% confidence) with CBO's historical 1-year forecast variance (~1.5% standard error on per-capita wages). Where HUD's cap or floor binds, the interval is truncated on that side — the cap is not a probabilistic constraint, it's a hard ceiling.