Lintel publishes forward projections of HUD income limits and LIHTC rent ceilings using the methodology HUD describes in its annual income-limits notice. These projections are estimates, not official figures.
Not affiliated with HUD
Lintel is an independent commercial product. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Census Bureau, the Congressional Budget Office, or any other federal agency.
Not a substitute for HUD's official figures
Once HUD publishes its official income limits each fiscal year (typically on or around April 1), the official figures govern all LIHTC compliance, underwriting determinations, and rent calculations. Our projections are intended only as a forward-looking estimate to support pre-publication underwriting and modeling — they are not authoritative.
Sources of estimation error
Lintel projections rely on inputs that may differ from HUD's final values:
- Census ACS data: Subject to sampling error and revisions. We surface the margin of error explicitly via the 95% confidence interval on every projection.
- CBO forecasts: The trend factor is based on the most recent CBO forecast of national per-capita wages. CBO forecasts are revised throughout the year and may differ from final realized values.
- HUD methodology: HUD occasionally introduces methodological adjustments not yet disclosed publicly. We apply the documented methodology as published.
- Area definitions: Changes to OMB metropolitan statistical area delineations or HUD's HMFA definitions may shift which counties belong to which FMR area.
Not financial, legal, or tax advice
Lintel projections are data products, not advice. They are not financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, or investment recommendations. Users should consult qualified professionals for advice specific to their circumstances and should not make final financial, legal, or compliance decisions based solely on Lintel projections.
Use limitations
Lintel projections should not be used as the basis for:
- Final tenant income certifications under IRC § 42
- LIHTC compliance determinations
- Setting rents on existing or newly placed-in-service units
- Filing federal or state tax returns
- Regulatory compliance or audit responses
For all such purposes, use HUD's officially published income limits for the applicable fiscal year, available at huduser.gov.
Confidence intervals
Each projection ships with a 95% confidence interval calculated by combining the margin of error reported by the U.S. Census Bureau with our estimate of CBO forecast variance. The interval is truncated when HUD's year-over-year cap or floor binds, because those are deterministic ceilings and floors, not probabilistic. The interval represents a reasonable range under our assumptions; actual published figures may fall outside it.
Cap-proximity signals
The "deferred upside" figure represents the gap between HUD's pre-cap formula output and the capped value. This includes both AMI growth and any high-housing-cost adjustments. Future-year release of deferred upside is not guaranteed and depends on subsequent ACS, CBO, and FMR inputs.
Updates
Projections are updated when new ACS vintages, CBO forecasts, FMR data, or HUD methodology documents are published. Past projections are retained for audit purposes. Each report is timestamped with the data vintage used.